GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND POLITICS

Leo Haviland provides clients with original, provocative, cutting-edge fundamental supply/demand and technical research on major financial marketplaces and trends. He also offers independent consulting and risk management advice.

Haviland’s expertise is macro. He focuses on the intertwining of equity, debt, currency, and commodity arenas, including the political players, regulatory approaches, social factors, and rhetoric that affect them. In a changing and dynamic global economy, Haviland’s mission remains constant – to give timely, value-added marketplace insights and foresights.

Leo Haviland has three decades of experience in the Wall Street trading environment. He has worked for Goldman Sachs, Sempra Energy Trading, and other institutions. In his research and sales career in stock, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity battlefields, he has dealt with numerous and diverse financial institutions and individuals. Haviland is a graduate of the University of Chicago (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Cornell Law School.

 

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US NATURAL GAS: THE WINTER INVENTORY DRAWING BOARD © Leo Haviland October 1, 2012

Having established a major low at 190 on 4/19/12 (NYMEX nearest futures continuation), natural gas marched sharply higher, reaching significant resistance around 330 (7/31/12). After retreating to 258 (8/29/12), the marketplace renewed its assault on the 330 barrier in late September. Even if prices lose some ground in the near term, and assuming normal weather, a decisive advance above that level, and to at least major resistance hovering at 380 to 415, probably will occur in the next few months. It would not be surprising if the initial assault on 380/415 occurred relatively soon.

But why will prices keep climbing? Admittedly, bears have good arguments. For example, current United States natural gas inventories (9/21/12 stocks of 3576bcf) are up about nine percent year-on-year. Suppose weather is around average for the 2012-2013 winter draw season. An initial review of United States natural gas inventories from a days coverage perspective indicates oversupply for the upcoming draw season.

However, there arguably is less oversupply in the near term than many believe. There seems to have been an upward shift in desired stockholdings from the days coverage vantage point in recent years.

In addition, inventories during winter and at end season 2012-13 probably will be far less excessive than during the preceding draw season. This will tend to excite many bulls.

For the next few months, natural gas production growth appears to be flattening (compare calendar 2012 with 2013). But gas demand increases, assuming sustained higher prices over 330, and maybe a bit cheaper, also may level off.

Yet it seems that natural gas is “looking forward” over a longer horizon than just the next few months (or maybe even calendar 2013). A bullish aura underpinning natural gas “for the long run” derives significantly from the coal plant retirement story (especially in 2014 and thereafter). This enthusiasm (though it may eventually confront supply jumps) thus thereby assists to some extent the bullish near term price trends. Also, nuclear power supplies probably will not increase much anytime soon; some players question how much and how quickly renewable supply will blossom from here.

This longer run bullish natural gas faith (orientation) has an implication for the probable willingness of natural gas producers to short hedge, say at around 380/415, or even 450 and beyond (strategies surely differ for each calendar year). Short hedging at these levels probably will be less than many believe.

What about LNG? The extent of LNG exports is conjectural. However, at quite low prices (picture under 200, maybe even 250), the export appeal rises. Though these floors are much beneath current prices, this story tends to support the upward price bias established in April 2012.

Add a technical bull point from the timing perspective. Many key natural gas (NYMEX nearest futures) marketplace bottoms have been reached in late August and calendar September. This did not occur in calendar 2012, which argues that the new highs being made recently will be surpassed. Also, the minor low around 258 in late August, although not close to the April 2012 depth, nevertheless occurred at a time from which prices often have sprung higher. Thus the quick travel higher of the past several weeks argues for a further upward flight.

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Natural Gas- the Winter Inventory Drawing Board (10-1-12)

US NATURAL GAS: BURNING UP (c) Leo Haviland July 23, 2012

Focus on natural gas days coverage levels for end October 2012 (around the close of inventory build season) and end March 2013 (approximate end of draw period) in the context of price history. Assume normal weather and relatively lofty petroleum prices. What does this perspective reveal? This not only indicates that April 2012’s 190 was a major low and that major support exists around 220/240 (NYMEX nearest futures continuation). It also justifies a challenge on significant resistance around 317/330. An ascent above that range sometime in the next several months will be difficult but not surprising.

However, days coverage probably will have to sustain a decline in its excess relative to its long run average (1990-2011) to around three days or fewer for natural gas to significantly challenge major resistance looming around 400. The sustained reduction in days coverage to such levels likely will occur eventually, even if it does not occur by the end of March 2013.

However, the duration of about three months from 4/19/12 to date is about that of the 2010 and 2011 spring rallies. This time element warns that one should be cautious about declaring a further big upward move lies in store for the very near term, especially given the proximity of the 317/337 resistance.

But the 2009/early 2010 period teaches an important lesson for natural gas. It strongly suggests that elimination of containment fears, when followed by a dramatic reduction in days coverage, can help to propel natural gas prices much higher (and perhaps quite quickly). Inventory prospects several months out, not just the current (or very near term), matter.

So from the inventory days coverage standpoint, and particularly when read relative to the 2009 context and its eventual price rally from 241, what follows? This huge reduction in oversupply from March 2012 to October 2012 strongly indicates that there was a major low in April 2012 (not a mere interim bottom), that prices will not easily (if at all) come back to that level, and that a major bull move from that April 2012 low (not a mere interim rally) is underway.

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Natural Gas- Burning Up (7-23-12)
Natural Gas Chart (NYMEX nearest futures)(7-23-12)

US PETROLEUM- TAKING STOCK © Leo Haviland, May 8, 2012

Crude oil streams and various refined products create an array of petroleum supply/demand pictures. Although America of course is not the entire oil universe, a survey of the recent overall United States petroleum inventory scene offers insight into the general petroleum price trend. Also recall the linkage in recent years of major trends between the S+P 500 and the petroleum complex (and commodities “in general”). This analysis of petroleum inventories in context underlines the current bearish trends in petroleum and the S+P 500.

At end March, US oil industry total inventory averages 50.3 days coverage (1996-2011, crude and products combined relative to total product supplied per day for that calendar month, Energy Information Administration inventory data; Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks not included). End March 2012 days coverage climbed to 58.9 days supply. Not only did this soar more than eight days above average. It established a new record for that calendar month for the 1996- present era. Although the United States economy has been in a recovery for almost three years, these inventories broke beyond March 2009’s 58.2 day summit, achieved in the depths of the worldwide economic crisis and the month of the S+P 500’a major low (3/6/09 at 667).

These high supplies for March 2012 are not a one month aberration. Glance at the previous three months in historical context. From 1996 through end 2011, average total inventory for December is 50.2 days, January 51.0 days, and February 50.0 days. December 2011 ascended to a new record high for that calendar month; its 56.3 days of supply decisively beat 1998’s 55.4 days. What about January 2012? Not only is its 58.9 days coverage about eight days above average. They smash January 2010’s top of 56.8 days (compare January 2009’s lofty 55.8 days). February 2012’s 57.9 days coverage likewise significantly exceeds its calendar month average. Its huge days coverage decisively climbs over the previous stockpile record of 56.9 days achieved in February 2009.

As of 4/27/12 (weekly EIA data), US petroleum industry inventory slipped to around 56.9 days of supply (average daily total product supplied for the most recent four weeks). Total oil industry stocks nevertheless remain ample from the days coverage perspective. Although not a new end April record elevation (2009 was 58.8 days), it still vaults more than five days over end April’s 51.5 days coverage average.

On balance, just-in-case fears regarding petroleum inventory probably are diminishing, and will continue to do so for a while longer. A bear trend in petroleum prices probably also will interrelate with attitudes regarding just-in-case inventory management. If prices are dropping, why worry quite so much about supplies, right? ****

Analysis of NYMEX noncommercial petroleum positions indicates they probably reached a peak recently. Liquidation by net noncommercial longs probably has helped to move oil prices lower and probably will continue to do so.

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Petroleum- Taking Stock (5-8-12)
NYMEX Crude Oil (5-8-12)

OIL AND TROUBLED ECONOMIC WATERS © Leo Haviland, August 8, 2011

Petroleum prices will remain in a sideways to down trend. At least in the OECD, industry inventory in days coverage terms is currently higher than average. Due to renewed economic weakness and still relatively lofty oil prices, petroleum demand for the balance of 2011 and calendar 2012 probably will be less than many believe. Thus days coverage in the petroleum world probably will remain adequate for some time.

Petroleum remains partially hostage to variables of and trends and levels in key equity, currency, and interest rate (and other commodity) battlefields. Equity declines seem to be intertwining with those in the petroleum complex. Consumer balance sheets and incomes in the United States and many other nations remain under pressure. Substantial fiscal deficits (US, several European nations, perhaps Japan) undermine stock marketplace strength. A weak US dollar has convinced many that equities as well as petroleum prices should inevitably keep climbing, or at least stay high. However, a very (especially) weak US dollar situation- which seems to be emerging these days- may coincide with both feeble stocks and falling petroleum prices.

Petroleum bulls underline that if the economic recovery retains strength, supplies could get fairly tight unless OPEC raises its production quite a bit. Admittedly, as the Libyan situation shows, there’s always a chance that some event will significantly interrupt supplies. Some petroleum players therefore prefer to keep a handful of extra inventory around “just-in-case”. Alternative investment by noncommercial players has not evaporated. Some observers have faith that if the American economy weakens substantially, the Fed will engage in a third wave of quantitative easing (money printing) which would rally petroleum prices in nominal terms.

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Oil and Troubled Economic Waters (8-8-11)